Nomura Maintains 'Neutral' Rating on Phoenix Mills with ₹2,023 Target Price, Raises Retail Income Estimate After Q1 FY27 Update

Nomura Lifts Q1 FY27 Retail Income Forecast on Strong Consumption

The Phoenix Mills, the largest listed mall owner and operator in the country, delivered a strong performance in the first quarter (April–June) of 2026–27 (FY27), driven by robust consumption growth, office leasing momentum, and healthy operational metrics in its hotel business.

Following the company's operational update for the quarter, Nomura Research raised its Q1 FY27 retail income growth estimate by 3 per cent and now expects retail income to reach ₹610 crore. This would represent year-on-year growth of 20 per cent, compared with its earlier estimate of 17 per cent.

Consumption Beat Expectations Across Malls

Consumption at its operational malls in Q1 FY27 stood at ₹4,727 crore, up 32 per cent year-on-year and 11 per cent sequentially. This was well ahead of the Street's expectation of 25 per cent growth for the quarter. This was the third consecutive quarter of more than 25 per cent consumption growth for the mall operator.

The growth was driven by a combination of high-single-digit like-for-like growth in legacy malls and the full-scale operational contribution from new assets like Phoenix Mall of Asia and Phoenix Citadel.

Office and Hospitality Momentum Sustains

The office portfolio saw stronger leasing demand, with occupancy improving to 72 per cent at the end of June from 70 per cent at the end of March. Gross leasing of 190,000 square feet was completed during the quarter, with the company expecting occupancy to improve further as leasing activity remains healthy.

The St. Regis Mumbai and Courtyard by Marriott Agra recorded RevPAR growth of 15 per cent and 23 per cent year-on-year, respectively. The improvement was supported by healthy occupancy levels and double-digit growth in average room rates, reflecting sustained demand in India's premium hospitality market.

Nomura Rating and Valuation

The brokerage has a 'neutral' rating with a target price of ₹2,023. At the current price of ₹2,088, the stock trades at 23x its 2027–28 enterprise value-to-operating profit.

Given the better-than-expected performance, brokerages remain positive on the outlook for its key businesses.